The fair-value CAPE value is 17. That’s the mean value experienced over the history of the U.S. stock market. The median value is 16. The highest value we have seen is 44. The lowest is 5. Today’s CAPE value is 29. When the CAPE value is near 17, investors should expect to obtain a long-term return of something in the neighborhood of 6.5 percent real, the average long-term return. When it is below that, one can realistically expect a higher return. Q3 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more When it is above that, one needs to be prepared for a lower return. When the CAPE value hit 44 in …